Hi! http://5.moitalsm.info/108_0.html . Thanks!…

We’ll keep this “discussion” in the comments, see if it triggers others.

I’ve followed the oil market for years, and have a “hobby” interest in geology (one of the few courses I really enjoyed in college. Far back enough that Plate Tectonics was “Contential Drift” and still fringe stuff (G)

Back on topic – I’d have to check data on volatility (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatility) in the oil markets. Financial markets, in general have had lower volatility the last couple of years, one reason the last few weeks action has gotten attention.

Personal opinion: the markets have $5-10 “risk premium build into them, mainly “geo-political” risk.

I’ve read a lot on both sides, and am a skeptic on “peak oil”, but open-minded.

For interesting reading, and material that is considered very “far out” by the oil industry, check this out
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Gold

I was attracted to Tom’s work years ago when he asked a simple question: “Why are hydrocarbons on earthy “fossil” when we also find them on other planets”
What happens if hydrocarbons are really primordial, not fossil ???

More here: http://www.longbets.org/257 where I reference Danny Hillis
http://www.longbets.org/168

Now, coupled with my skepticism, I applaud Corporate moves to be more “green”, bright managers know that there is money to be made with efficiency and “doing good”

Sorry that the Fortune piece on recycling isn’t online (therefor link-able) but it patterns to Buckey Fuller: “there is no such thing as pollution, it’s just mis-allocation of resources”. The piece referenced Wal-Mart as commenting on packaging “we pay once to buy it, then again to dispose of it” better to recycle.

Let’s “continue the conversation”

Ciao
Chip

Not sure I buy your “Peak Oil” thesis on current market situation.

1) “Peak Oil” still debatable and I sincerely doubt that there will ever be a time when they “ring the bell” that we’ve reached the point. Recognition will happen in hindsight, likely years later. The oil market is so large and varied that the data is likely to be very complex.
2) Simmons argument is interesting but keep in mind that he’s a financial analyst, not a geologist and does have an agenda … to sell his services.
3) I’d lay the current market volatility to several other factors, such as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) move on interest rates last month and the resulting effects on the “yen carry trade”, the moves by China to “modernize” it’s banking and dampening speculation in the Shangai Market. Rumbling in the sub-prime mortgage market has had an effect as well.

I’m on board with other points you make, more efficient urban environments etc.

I’ll toss out a couple of reads:
1) as a skeptic of hybrids, but following automotive (personal transportation) trends there is an interesting piece on advancements in battery technology here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/11/business/yourmoney/11stream.html?_r=1&ref=business&oref=slogin
2) Not (yet) online, current issue (pulp version) of Fortune on “The End of Garbage”, heavy duty recycling.

I’ll try to blog on these later
Keep up the good work(s)